Ceasefire and Contagion: Factions Against Iran Peace & FX, Sovereign Debt, and Commodity Spillovers
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The Iran ceasefire is a narrow opening within a much larger reorganization of the Middle East.
Matt Dines examines how the contagion is spreading through FX, sovereign debt, and commodities markets. While the short two-week window is an opportunity for the US and Iran to negotiate a peaceful exit, factions that prefer a return to the status quo or an alternative result are working behind the scenes to ensure these talks turn sour.